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courses:rg:2012:sigtest-mt [2012/11/12 17:35]
tamchyna 		courses:rg:2012:sigtest-mt [2012/11/12 17:43] (current)
tamchyna
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 Answering Question 4: A is better with 97% confidence (and at least as good with 98% confidence). Answering Question 4: A is better with 97% confidence (and at least as good with 98% confidence).
  
-We don't think this corresponds to confidence -- it's just the proportion of times that A beat B, a kind of ML estimate.+We don't think this corresponds to confidence -- it's just the proportion of times that A beat B, a kind of ML estimate. In fact, we could use the differences between systems as input for a paired t-test (and get a true confidence interval).
  
 Notes on p-value: concepts of confidence intervals/significance testing were developed independently by different researches, then they were somehow merged. P-value is often misunderstood and misused. Notes on p-value: concepts of confidence intervals/significance testing were developed independently by different researches, then they were somehow merged. P-value is often misunderstood and misused.
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 We do not prove our (alternative) hypothesis -- we can (with some confidence) reject the null hypothesis. We do not prove our (alternative) hypothesis -- we can (with some confidence) reject the null hypothesis.
  
-The p-value is **not** the probability of the null hypothesis. It only says how (im)probable the **data** is given H_0.+The p-value is **not** the probability of the null hypothesis. It only says how (im)probable the **data** is given H_0, i.e. P(S|H_0), not P(H_0|S).

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